Thursday, February 19, 2015

5 Big Charts to Trade for Gains: Coca-Cola, Google and More

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- Well, maybe a Fed rate hike isn't quite so imminent. Who'd have thunk it? The big U.S. stock indices churned yesterday, wobbled by the news that a majority of Fed governors rejected a near-term interest rate hike during the group's January meeting. While that means that the economy isn't quite as robust as investors had hoped, the subtext is what's important here. And with inflation currently plummeting, balking on near-term rate hikes opens the door to the possibility of more stimulus. Yes, the writing has been on the walls for a while now, but this is the first time we've also seen the Fed publicly acknowledge a step in that direction. Just for reference, inflation rates are currently the lowest they've been since the financial crisis of 2008, which means that deflation is a real concern for the central bank. That's a big deal for stock market investors. After all, the piles of cash that the Federal Reserve has been dumping into the system play a big part in the multi-year rally we've been enjoying. So to take advantage of the tailwinds this week, we're turning to the charts for a technical look at five huge blue chip names sending buy signals in February. First, a little on the technical toolbox we're using here. Technicals are a study of the market itself. Since the market is ultimately the only mechanism that determines a stock's price, technical analysis is a valuable tool even in the roughest of trading conditions. Technical charts are used every day by proprietary trading floors, Wall Street's biggest financial firms, and individual investors to get an edge on the market. And research shows that skilled technical traders can bank gains as much as 90% of the time. Every week, I take an in-depth look at big names that are telling important technical stories. Here's this week's look at five big stocks to trade this week. Must Read: Warren Buffett's Top 10 Dividend Stocks Femsa Up first on our list is $31 billion Mexican beverage stock Femsa , which has done a whole lot of nothing in recent months, dropping around 8% in a shallow downtrend. That performance doesn't sound horrifying, but it's pretty bad in the context of the broader market -- the S&P 500 is actually up 6.5% over the same period. But Femsa could finally about to show patient shareholders some upside in 2015. That's because FMX is currently forming an ascending triangle pattern, a bullish price setup that's formed by horizontal resistance above shares (in this case up at $90) and uptrending support to the downside. Basically, as FMX bounces in between those two technically important price levels, it's been getting squeezed closer and closer to a breakout above our $90 price ceiling. When that happens, we've got a buy signal. FMX's upside trade is getting some extra confirmation from momentum, measured by 14-day RSI at the top of the chart. Our momentum gauge has been in an uptrend since FMX's price started bottoming, an indication that buying pressure is quietly building in shares. Wait for $90 to get taken out, then buy. Must Read: Warren Buffet's Top 10 Stock Buys Procter & Gamble Consumer goods giant Procter & Gamble is showing investors a triangle of a different sort this week. Shares of PG have been looking toxic for a while now. Since then, this stock has settled down in the mid $80s. But a symmetrical triangle is spurring another trading signal for February. Procter is currently forming a symmetrical triangle, or "coil" pattern, a setup that's formed by a pair of converging trend lines. Consolidation patterns such as the symmetrical triangle are common after big moves -- they give investors a chance to catch their breath and figure out their next step. The buy signal comes on a breakout to the topside of the pattern, currently right at the $86.50 level. If shares can catch a bid above $86.50, then we've got a strong indication that the sideways trading is over and buyers are ready to come back into PG. Otherwise, if shares violate support just above $85, then P&G is due for another leg lower. The constricting action of PG's symmetrical triangle is setting shares up for a volatility squeeze. Since volatility is cyclical, periods of very low volatility are typically followed up by a swing to high volatility. That means that Procter & Gamble's initial move is likely to be very fast. Don’t miss it. The first move outside the symmetrical triangle dictates the direction to trade it. Must Read: 10 Stocks Billionaire John Paulson Loves Google Shares of tech giant Google , are looking "bottomy" this month. In fact, shares broke out late last week -- and now, a throwback is giving traders a second chance at a low-risk entry in shares. Google spent December and January forming a rounding bottom pattern, a technical setup that looks just like it sounds. Google's rounding bottom was an indication that control of shares was switching hands from sellers to buyers -- the buy signal came on a push through resistance at $538. While the dip back down to that level this week look like a bad thing, it's actually good; if Google can re-confirm buying pressure down at $538 support, then it's a stellar low-risk entry point for buyers to build a position. Relative strength is the side-indicator to watch in shares of Google right now. Our RS line finally broke its downtrend in January and started ticking higher, an indication that Google isn't just moving up now, it's also outperforming the broad market. As long as that relative strength line keeps trending higher, Google should keep outperforming the S&P. Must Read: Warren Buffett's Top 10 Dividend Stocks Coca-Cola Coca-Cola is another example of a "buy the dips stock" in February. Like with Google, KO's pullback to support is presenting buyers with a low-risk opportunity to jump in. Even better, you don't need to be a trading expert to see why -- the price action in KO is about as simple as it gets. Coke is currently forming an uptrending channel, a simple price setup that's formed by parallel support and resistance lines. Put simply, each of the last seven tests of trend line support have given traders a low-risk, high-reward buying opportunity in Coca-Cola, so as shares touch that trend line for the eighth time this week, it makes sense to buy the next bounce higher. Waiting to buy off a support bounce makes sense for two big reasons: it’s the spot where shares have the furthest to move up before they hit resistance, and it’s the spot where the risk is the least (because shares have the least room to move lower before you know you’re wrong). Remember, all trend lines do eventually break, but by actually waiting for the bounce to happen first, you're ensuring Coke can actually still catch a bid along that line before you put your money on shares. The 200-day moving average has been an excellent proxy for support on the way up, which makes it a logical place to park a protective stop. Must Read: 5 Stocks Warren Buffett Is Selling Avnet Last up on our list is $6.2 billion IT product distributor Avnet . This stock has been churning sideways for the better part of the last year -- but all of that lateral price action has actually been forming a long-term basing setup. The buy signal comes on a push above $45. Avnet has been forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern, the bullish opposite of the price pattern that triggered Procter & Gamble's drop last month. The inverse head and shoulders is formed by two swing lows that bottom out around the same level (the shoulders), separated by a bigger trough called the head; the buy signal comes on the breakout above the pattern’s “neckline” level. For AVT, that breakout comes on a push through the $45 price level I mentioned earlier. Shares are testing that level in today's session. Why all of that significance at that $45 level? It all comes down to buyers and sellers. Price patterns, like this inverse head and shoulders in AVT, are a good quick way to identify what's going on in the price action, but they're not the actual reason a stock is tradable. Instead, the "why" comes down to basic supply and demand for AVT's stock. The $45 resistance level is a price where there has been an excess of supply of shares; in other words, it's a spot where sellers have previously been more eager to step in and take gains than buyers have been to buy. That's what makes a breakout above $45 so significant -- the move means that buyers are finally strong enough to absorb all of the excess supply above that price level. If shares can stay above $45 all day today, consider the buy signal confirmed in Avnet. -- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore. Must Read: Warren Buffet's Top 10 Stock Buys Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.


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