Monday, April 20, 2015

Friday’s Stock Market Tumble Weakens Technicals on Weekly Charts

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 continue to be the best-year-to-date performers, but gains have slipped to 4.1% and 3.9%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is virtually flat with the S&P 500, which is up just 1.1%, and the drags continue to be the Dow Jones Transportation Average and the Dow Jones Utilities Average, down 5.4% and 5.6%, respectively. Transports and utilities were the leaders last year, with gains of 24% and 26%, respectively. Must Read: Warren Buffett's Top 10 Dividend Stocks On Friday, we looked at the daily charts. Monday's focus is the weekly charts. If the weekly charts for the five major averages shift to negative this week, many strategists will be touting the old adage, "sell in May, and go away." By definition, all five major averages need to be in sync with negative weekly charts simultaneously to signal a potential stock market correction. This would require the April 24 closes to be below all five key weekly moving averages of 17,871.72 for the Dow industrials, 2,978.74 for the S&P 500, 4,912.15 for the Nasdaq Composite, 8,791.35 for the Dow transports and 1,241.84 for the Russell 2000, with momentum readings declining below 80 on a scale of 0 to 100. Let's take a look at the weekly charts to get the full analysis of the chart profiles. Here is the weekly chart for the Dow 30: Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith The Dow 30 had a close of 17,826.30 on Friday and is below its 50-day simple moving average of 17,959.60 and above its 200-day SMA of 17,398.58. If the Dow 30 doesn't rebound this week its weekly chart profile will be negative. The index closed Friday just below its key weekly moving average of 17,871.72. The momentum reading is 68.02, down from 68.27 on April 10. A lower close this week will confirm a negative weekly chart for the Dow 30. Must Read: 16 Rock-Solid Dividend Stocks With 50 Years of Increasing Dividends and Market-Beating Performance Here is the weekly chart for the S&P 500: Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith The S&P 500 had a close of 2,081.18 on Friday, just below its 50-day SMA of 2085.17, and it is above its 200-day SMA of 2,020.09. The S&P 500 ended last week just above its key weekly moving average of 2,078.74. The momentum reading ended the week at 72.20, vs. 71.35 on April 10. This keeps the weekly chart technically positive, but a lower close on April 24 would be a game-changer. Here is the weekly chart for the Nasdaq Composite: Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith The Nasdaq Composite had a close of 4,931.81 on Friday holding its 50-day SMA of 4,923.56 and is above its 200-day SMA of 4,653.35. The Nasdaq Composite ended last week just above its key weekly moving average of 4,912.15. The momentum reading ended the week at 78.55, vs. 78.87 on April 10. This shifts the weekly chart technically to neutral, and a lower close on April 24 will shift this weekly chart to negative. Here is the weekly chart for transports: Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith Dow transports had a close of 8,647.50 on Friday below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs of 8,900.06 and 8,787.13, respectively. Dow transports ended last week below its key weekly moving average of 4,791.35. The momentum reading ended the week at 31.42, down from 37.40 on April 10. Must Read: Bank of America's 10 Top S&P 500 Stocks to Buy for 2015 This shifts the weekly chart technically negative. This index would have to a close above 8,791.35 on April 24 to reverse its fortunes. Here is the weekly chart for the Russell 2000: Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith The Russell 2000 had a close of 1,251.86 on Friday, and the open set up a downward price gap, but the small-capitalization index stayed above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs of 1,239.12 and 1,176.38, respectively. The Russell 2000 ended last week above its key weekly moving average of 1,241.84. The momentum reading ended the week at 87.73, vs. 87.45 on April 10. This makes the weekly chart positive but overbought and could prevent the stock market from signaling a potential correction on April 24. Investors not familiar with technical analysis should begin with the notion that a price chart for an index or stock shows a road map of past price performance, which provides guidance for predicting future share price direction. Here is how to read a daily chart: There are two moving averages to follow; the 50-day simple moving average is in blue, while the 200-day SMA is in green. Here is how to read a weekly chart: This chart shows weekly price bars going back to the beginning of 2007 and thus includes the crash of 2008, then the current bull market for stocks that began in March 2009. The red line tracks the ups and downs of the key weekly moving average. The green line is the 200-week SMA. The red line that oscillates along the bottom of the chart is the momentum reading on a scale of 0 to 100. A reading below 20 is oversold, and a reading above 80 is overbought. A technically positive weekly chart occurs when a stock ends a week above its key weekly moving average with the momentum reading rising above 20. A technically negative weekly chart occurs when a stock ends a week below its key weekly moving average with the momentum reading declining below 80. Must Read: Three ETFs Billionaire Ray Dalio Loves and Why You Should, Too    



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