Friday, April 17, 2015

What Technical Charts Say About Bonds, Gold, Oil and Euro

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Technical charts are painting a favorable picture for bonds, gold, oil and the euro. First, with bonds, the latest decline in the yield of the 10-year Treasury note began on Jan. 2, 2014 when the yield was as high as 3.041%. The 2015 low of 1.637% was set on Jan. 30. The lower yields favor bond prices as prices move in the opposite direction of yields. Must Read: Warren Buffett's Top 10 Dividend Stocks As for gold, the bubble popped from a peak of $1,923.7 per Troy ounce during the week of Sept. 9, 2011. The recent low of $1,146.7 set on Nov. 10 was a "key reversal," setting the stage for a potentially big gold rebound. With crude oil, the bubble popped from a peak of $147.27 per barrel during the week of July 11, 2008. The recent low of $42.03 set on March 18 was also a key reversal, setting the beginning a rebound for "Texas Tea." The dollar rally and weak euro began from a key reversal on May 8 after the euro set a multiyear intraday high of 1.3992. The recent low of 1.0456 set on March 6 is a potential bottom. Let's take a look at the daily chart for yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note. Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith The yield on the Treasury 10-year note closed at 1.878% on Thursday, which was below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving average of 1.990% and 2.222%, respectively. The yield has been below its 200-day SMA since April 22, when the yield was 2.726%. Note the buying opportunities when this moving average was tested on July 3 and Sept.19. A key level on technical charts is 1.921%, which should act as a magnet until the end of June keeping yields low. Must Read: 16 Rock-Solid Dividend Stocks With 50 Years of Increasing Dividends and Market-Beating Performance Let's take a look at the daily chart for Comex gold. Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith Comex gold closed at $1.197.80 on Thursday, which was above the 50-day simple moving average of $1,195.3 but below the 200-day simple moving average of $1,230.90. Gold has been trading back and forth around its 200-day SMA since Feb. 14, 2014. There needs to be a sustained trend above the 200-day with a "golden cross" where the 50-day moves above the 200-day. A key level on technical charts is $1,200.80. A weekly close above this key weekly moving average will shift the weekly chart to positive. Let's take a look at the daily chart for Nymex crude oil. Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith Nymex crude oil closed at $56.71 on Thursday, which was above its 50-day simple moving average of $50.01 but well below its 200-day simple moving average of $71.70. Crude oil has been below its 200-day SMA since July 31, when the average was $99.86. Note that the 2015 low of $42.41 was on the day of a key reversal. A key level on technical charts is $49.62, and a weekly close above this key weekly moving average will shift the weekly chart to positive. Must Read: Bank of America’s 10 Top S&P 500 Stocks to Buy for 2015 Let's take a look at the daily chart for euro vs. the dollar. Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith The euro vs. the dollar closed of 1.0760 on Thursday, and is below the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages of 1.0963 and 1.2185, respectively. The euro needs a weekly close above its key weekly moving average of 1.0923 to have a positive weekly chart. A key level on technical charts is 1.0350, which is the important price to hold on weakness until the end of April. Must Read: Three ETFs Billionaire Ray Dalio Loves and Why You Should, Too







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